Peter Muscutt has targeted the Breeder’s Mile for his rapidly progressive three-year-old, Noble City and the talented son of Noble Tune is the tip for Race 7 at Greyville on Sunday.
Noble City has shown flashy signs from day one, when he romped in a January Maiden at Kenilworth and his figures continue to improve. His last start in May over the course and distance was his best, meriting a speed score, after a sectional upgrade, of 106, which puts him top of the rankings here.
He will need to overcome draw 9 (never easy at this bendy circuit) but has an excellent jock in Richard Fourie to aid his cause. Noble City’s class and swift finish should pull them through.
Captain Casey and Willows Wish (s/s 103) are the main menaces. The latter has deadly form over a touch further and will put up a bold fight. Captain Casey ran on very well last time in an extended sprint (zippy 33 seconds and change for the final 600m, despite a wide trip) and could conceivably run a number as high as 104 here. That puts him real close to Noble City, plus he’s adept at this distance, is primed third run after a rest and gets the benefit of Keagan de Melo’s considerable riding skills.
Laguna Verde seems well-suited to this trip and members of Lucky Houdalakis’’ rare coastal raiding party’s must always be respected. His best figure of 98 falls short though of what is needed to win, however.
Older horses, MK’s Pride and Battle Force have back class with career peaks of 109 and 105 respectively. The former’s recent best is a strong 106 behind Trip of Fortune in the G1 Horse Chestnut Stakes, whilst Battle Force, who ran 2nd in this race last year to Nexus, got a neat 99 when unplaced to Silvano’s Dasher at Scottsville three weeks ago.
That 106 would make MK’s Pride seriously dangerous in the context of this race, but he is not one to depend upon with a history of bleeding and respiratory issues.
Willow Express has a speed figure of 101 that is only slightly below the contender par. However, the grey battles to finish off his races, has not won in 406 days and with just 4 wins from 37 starts gets downgraded for this tough assignment.
That leaves hat-trick seeking Poly merchant, Proud Master (s/s 95) who has five wins from 15 starts over shorter, and Flashy Apache who is a game trier going handy over this distance but could be in too deep here with an overall profile of 4 wins from 28 starts and a best fig of 91.
Grades:
A = 9 B = 3 7 6 C = 4 8
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